Analysis of the paper price trend in 2021

This year, due to the epidemic policies, the price of paper has increased a lot, and cultural paper has risen by 200 yuan / ton.The prices of other cultural paper and packaging paper have also increased. The price of Chinese paper is directly close to the pork price in 2020, while leading enterprises such as packaging paper and special paper also started the N price increase in mid-November, with an average of prices every three days.

The latest price of cultural paper generally increases by 200 / ton, white card paper by 1,000 yuan / ton, and special paper by 1,000 yuan / ton.But it fell back from October.

Not only the price of cultural paper, packaging paper and special paper rose, but also the price of toilet paper rose, and the rise of raw materials, spread to the price of the downstream consumption end, has been inevitable

Analysis of the paper price trend in 2021

China will enter a new paper and cardboard capacity expansion round from 2021. According to the released data, it is expected to add nearly 20 million tons of new paper and cardboard production capacity and 6.5 million tons of new native pulp demand in the next five years.Among them, driven by the plastic restriction order and waste ban order, the demand for China's high-end packaging paper continues to grow, which will bring a new demand of nearly 10 million tons of paper products such as box cardboard, white cardboard, food packaging paper and other paper products. In general, the expansion of the downstream pulp paper industry in 2021 will promote the strengthening of pulp prices.

Paper price rise is affected by the global pulp raw material price rise, and also appears the abnormal phenomenon of pulp price higher than the paper price. According to market data, from July 2020 and March 2021, the average price of wood pulp per ton rose by more than 2,574 yuan per ton.

During the outbreak of the epidemic last year, European and American countries began to grab health paper without masks.And Brazil is a big pot of pulp production, and the epidemic is still very severe, and pulp production is not back on track, so the prices of imported pulp have also soared.

From 2021, China will completely ban the import of solid waste completely, while the Ministry of Ecology and Environment will not accept and approve its import applications.This also means that the import of waste paper will be completely banned in 2021, and the domestic pulp demand gap is 3.8 million tons in 2020, which will take some time for the market to adjust

As soon as the plastic restriction was implemented, the demand for paper increased, especially the demand for food packaging and packaging bags increased significantly. Statistics of the Bureau showed that the cumulative output of plastic products reached 81 million tons in 2019 alone reached 81 million tons.Among them, plastic straws are 30,000 tons, and there are alternative paper straws, paper will become a plastic substitute is understandable.

There are also many reasons for the paper price rise, from the initial macro recovery, to the loose economic atmosphere, and finally to the increase of CME wood costs, are all factors affecting the paper prices.